Will a US-backed economic zone incentivise Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah? | Israel attacks Lebanon

The proposal of a US-backed economic zone in southern Lebanon is generating debate among analysts and political observers, especially regarding its ability to disarm Hezbollah. US envoy Thomas Barrack recently introduced this idea during his visit to Lebanon, emphasizing a collaborative effort involving Lebanon and Gulf nations aimed at economic revitalization. However, the feasibility of such a catalyst for the disarmament of Hezbollah remains questionable.

### Background of Hezbollah in Lebanon

Hezbollah has been a significant force in Lebanon, portrayed either as a necessary defense mechanism against Israeli aggression or as an armed group undermining the Lebanese state’s authority. The group’s resistance against Israel, especially during the wars of the past two decades, initially bolstered its popularity. However, recent conflicts, particularly the war in 2023, have weakened its image and operational capabilities.

There are several factors contributing to the current challenges facing Hezbollah. The fallout from the conflict with Israel, characterized by substantial loss of life and widespread destruction, has led to a heightened sense of scrutiny towards Hezbollah. Additionally, significant shifts in internal political alliances, as well as Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian civil war, have alienated some of its support base.

### The Pressure to Disarm

In light of recent conflicts, both Israel and the United States have intensified calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah. The newfound Lebanese government, which has garnered support from the US and its regional allies, has expressed a willingness to address this issue. Yet, many observers remain skeptical about whether the economic incentives proposed can achieve this goal.

The trauma from past wars, particularly the severity of the 2023 conflict, continues to impact public sentiment in southern Lebanon. A recent survey of local opinion revealed deep-rooted distrust of US intentions, partly due to Americans’ perceived support for Israeli military actions.

### The Concept of an Economic Zone

The economic zone proposal is reminiscent of initiatives seen in Jordan and Egypt that capitalized on agreements with Israel for economic development. Analysts argue that Lebanon’s complex relationship with Israel complicates replication of these models. The nuances of Lebanese political dynamics suggest that many citizens are unlikely to accept terms that resemble normalization with Israel, particularly in light of the continued military operations and territorial occupations by Israel.

Experts point to the lack of concrete details surrounding the proposal as a significant obstacle. While the notion of creating a livelihood through economic forums is appealing in theory, the execution presents numerous difficulties. For one, unless the proposed economic zone can meaningfully integrate local communities, it risks being seen as an isolated enclave with minimal benefits to the broader population.

### Sociopolitical Landscape

The skepticism surrounding the economic zone proposal is heightened by Hezbollah’s adamant stance against disarmament. In a recent speech, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem reiterated the group’s commitment to maintaining its weapons as protective measures against external threats. The legitimacy of Hezbollah’s military capabilities in the eyes of some Lebanese citizens underscores the difficulty of disarming the group.

Moreover, with increasing calls from within the Lebanese opposition for disarmament, the socio-political landscape is evolving. Yet, any movement towards disarmament must contend with Hezbollah’s resistance and the broader political ramifications within the context of Lebanese sovereignty and self-determination.

### Local Sentiment and Trust Issues

Perspectives from southern Lebanon reveal a palpable distrust of American intentions. Many residents perceive US initiatives as inherently self-serving and lacking genuine concern for Lebanon’s stability and wellbeing. This skepticism complicates the feasibility of the economic zone proposal and raises further questions about the administration’s effectiveness in negotiating local agreements.

The trauma left by consecutive Israeli invasions has not only impeded recovery but has also cemented an anti-US sentiment among many Lebanese. As regional tensions continue to simmer, a significant number of individuals associate US foreign policy with the adversities faced in their homeland. Thus, the proposal may face significant opposition—not only from Hezbollah but from a broader section of Lebanese society.

### Conclusion: The Road Ahead

While the US-backed economic zone presents an intriguing possibility for economic revitalization in southern Lebanon, its success hinges on overcoming profound socio-political challenges. The circumstances surrounding Hezbollah’s disarmament cannot be disregarded, as many Lebanese perceive the group as a protector against foreign aggression.

Ultimately, trust in the US as a mediator remains critical, yet deeply lacking among the population. Analysts suggest that, regardless of the viability of the economic zone, a greater political consensus must be achieved within Lebanon to navigate the complexities of disarmament and regional normalcy.

The future trajectory of this proposal will likely unfold amid continuing regional tensions and a precarious balance of power, marking a delicate and challenging path toward a potential resolution in Lebanon.

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