Vietnam is on the brink of a transformative decade crucial to defining its economic future. According to Ha Huy Ngoc, Director of the Center for Local and Territorial Economic Policy Research at the Vietnam Institute of Economics and World Affairs, the goal of achieving double-digit economic growth in this time frame is not merely aspirational—it’s a practical necessity for closing the development gap and strengthening the nation’s economic resilience.
### Understanding Vietnam’s Economic Landscape
Historically, Vietnam has experienced significant economic growth, yet it faces challenges as it seeks to move beyond being a middle-income nation. The average economic growth between 2015 and 2020 stood at 5.6%, with contributions mostly drawn from investment and technological innovation. Alarmingly, a negative growth rate was attributed to inefficiencies. The threat of falling into the middle-income trap looms large; thus, the nation’s economic strategy must focus on innovation, science, and technology to ensure sustainable growth.
### Global Context and Green Transformation
Ngoc emphasizes that transitioning toward a green and circular economy is now an irreversible global trend. Nations like South Korea, Canada, and China are investing heavily in legal frameworks and strategies to achieve green growth. Echoing this global shift, Vietnam has adopted several important strategies, including the National Green Growth Strategy and the Net Zero pledge at COP26, reasserting its commitment to sustainability.
Vietnam stands out as a global model for green transformation, yet it must not become complacent. The economic framework needs to evolve to support growth based on innovation rather than relying solely on natural resources, public investment, and cheap labor.
### The Path Forward: Innovation and Technology
For Vietnam to escape the middle-income trap, it must prioritize technological innovation. Ngoc notes that the roadmap set forth by the 13th Party Congress aims for Vietnam to evolve into a high-income industrialized nation by 2045. This vision necessitates sustained, high growth, emphasizing that achieving double-digit GDP growth is a strategic imperative.
To catalyze this transformation, new, quality-driven growth models must emerge. These models should not just focus on quantitative output but also on high value, efficiency, and productivity. The private sector is seen as the key player in this transition, facilitating job creation and productivity improvement while enhancing national competitiveness.
### Institutional Reforms and Government Restructuring
The urgency for institutional reform cannot be understated. Vietnam’s restructuring of central government and the introduction of a two-tier local governance system are designed to enhance efficiency and accountability. Such changes are rare and represent a significant leap forward in governance.
These reforms aim to tackle pressing issues like performance accountability across government levels. The shift from a cautious approach to a more proactive reform mindset could create opportunities for expansive progress.
### Overcoming Administrative Barriers
Ngoc stresses that Vietnam’s economic transformation hinges on eliminating administrative barriers that plague public investment. The institutional architecture must promote fair competition and facilitate innovation. Simplifying regulatory frameworks and removing redundant regulations are also critical to fostering a conducive environment for growth.
Moreover, there needs to be a comprehensive reassessment of governance responsibilities between central and local authorities. Streamlining public sector operations can unlock the potential for innovation and link centralized policies with local execution.
### Conclusion: A Vision for the Future
Vietnam stands at a crossroads, with significant opportunities ahead. Its ambition to become a high-income economy by 2045 is realistic, but only if it commits to profound transformations in its economic structure, governance, and growth models. The focus on science, technology, and sustainable practices will be the linchpin of this evolution.
As Vietnam embarks on this decisive decade, it is crucial that stakeholders—government, businesses, and civil society—align their efforts to create a robust, innovative framework. By doing so, Vietnam can not only secure its economic destiny but also carve out a prominent role on the global stage, transitioning from a latecomer to a leader in sustainable economic development.
Through collaborative efforts and a commitment to reform, Vietnam is poised for a prosperous future defined by resilience, innovation, and sustainability.
Source link
