The National Hurricane Center is tracking 2 new disturbances in the Atlantic — and one could move across Florida. See the projected path and forecast.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is indeed closely monitoring two new disturbances currently developing in the Atlantic Ocean, with one potentially posing a threat to Florida. This analysis aims to summarize the latest updates regarding these disturbances, the current state of the Atlantic hurricane season, and potential impacts based on recent forecasts.

Overview of Current Disturbances

As of Thursday morning, the NHC has identified two distinct disturbances in the Atlantic.

1. Disturbance 1 in the Central Tropical Atlantic:
   A tropical wave is forecast to emerge from the African coast in the coming days. This wave is anticipated to interact with another disturbance located in the eastern tropical Atlantic, which may result in some slow development as it progresses westward at speeds between 15 to 20 mph. However, the formation chances remain low—near 0% over the next 48 hours and approximately 20% within the next week.

2. Disturbance 2 in the Southwestern Atlantic:
   This area of low pressure is likely to develop along a remnant frontal boundary situated near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida over the next few days. The NHC indicates that any development from this disturbance is expected to be gradual, as it moves northwest across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Formation chances are also low here, at 10% for both the next 48 hours and the upcoming week.

The NHC’s forecast highlights the potential for significant weather, categorizing areas where a tropical cyclone could develop. Current outlooks reflect a yellow color coding, indicative of low development probability.

Recent Hurricane Activity

Alongside these disturbances, the remnants of Hurricanes Imelda and Humberto continue to be monitored as well. Imelda, which was downgraded from a hurricane, brought hurricane-force winds and flash flooding to Bermuda, now moving away from the island. Forecasts indicate these remnants do not pose a direct threat to the U.S. East Coast but could exacerbate surf and rip current risks from Florida to New York, which calls for caution among beachgoers.

The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Context

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season commenced on June 1 and will conclude at the end of November. The NHC has suggested there is a 50% possibility of above-normal storm activity during this period, particularly as we are currently situated within the season’s peak window—from mid-August through mid-October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had previously reduced its projections for named storms this year, now estimating between 13 to 18 storms, including up to five that may escalate into major hurricanes with wind speeds exceeding 111 mph. Historically, a typical hurricane season records about 14 named storms.

As of early October, nine named storms have been documented: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Fernand, and hurricanes Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto, and Imelda. The next expected named storm will be Jerry.

Historical Context and Comparisons

Notably, 2025 is shaping up to be a unique year. For the first time since 2015, no hurricanes made landfall in the United States through September, which contrasts with previous years when various storms had created significant impacts. For instance, notable years in which no hurricanes made landfall through September include 2013, 2010, and 2009 among others.

AccuWeather’s expert, Alex DaSilva, notes that while the current season has seen several close calls with storms like Hurricane Erin and Humberto, the region has been largely spared from significant flooding. The phenomena known as the "Fujiwhara Effect" played a crucial role in altering the paths of these hurricanes, thereby mitigating direct threats to the U.S. coast for the time being.

Warning and Preparedness

Despite the current lull, experts advise against complacency. The latter part of hurricane season could bring increased storm activity, and conditions may support the development of tropical systems well into late October and November. Public awareness and preparedness remain pivotal as meteorological conditions evolve.

In conclusion, while the NHC is observing two disturbances with minimal immediate threat, the broader context of the Atlantic hurricane season underscores the importance of vigilance. As atmospheric conditions shift, continuous updates from the NHC and local weather services will be vital for those in affected regions. Regular monitoring of the situation is recommended for residents, especially those in coastal areas prone to tropical storm impacts.

Source link