Danny Quah, a prominent Singaporean economist, has been gaining attention for his insights into the future of the global economy, particularly the projected shift of its center of gravity towards the East. In an exclusive interview conducted on August 23, 2025, Quah discussed how we might see a significant transformation in the global economic dynamics, probably by 2040—decades ahead of the commonly speculated timeline of 2050.
### Shifting Economic Power
Quah’s theories, first articulated in his influential 2011 paper, state that the world’s economic center of gravity will increasingly gravitate toward the GMT+8 time zone, which encompasses major economies such as China, Singapore, and parts of Southeast Asia. According to Quah, this shift can be attributed to several factors, one being the current weakening of the United States as it struggles with internal factors that have traditionally fueled its economic might.
Quah emphasizes that U.S. policies passed during the Trump administration have likely led to “self-inflicted wounds” in the American economy. These policies, coupled with a decline in commitment to the principles of science, knowledge, and international trade, have positioned the U.S. in a precarious state. This has opened up significant opportunities for countries in the East, particularly China, which, despite a slowdown to approximately 5% growth, continues to contribute significantly to the global GDP. Meanwhile, India has emerged as the world’s fastest-growing large economy.
### The Rise of the Global South
Quah highlights the rise of the Global South, which includes nations that previously faced colonial rule. These countries are now motivated to develop their economies on their own terms. He argues that the unique historical contexts of each nation can foster greater collaboration among them. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is particularly well-positioned to capitalize on these emerging opportunities, as member nations continue to advocate for open trade systems, a stance that is becoming increasingly critical given the challenges posed by U.S. protectionist policies.
He points out that while America’s disruption of the global trading environment has affected many nations, the Greater Bay Area (GBA) in China remains a hub of thriving trade. Quah notes the potential for ASEAN countries, which boast a collective population of approximately 700 million, to further explore trade partnerships in areas like digital technology and green energy.
### Collaboration Between ASEAN and the GBA
Quah elaborates on the burgeoning relations between ASEAN and the GBA, suggesting that both regions can mutually benefit from embracing collaborative frameworks. The GBA, focusing on fostering economic vitality, allows businesses to flourish even amidst turbulent global conditions. Through partnerships, ASEAN countries aim to drive innovation in critical sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and green energy.
In this regard, Quah emphasizes that ASEAN does not wish to confine itself to one area of cooperation but is eager to engage across multiple fronts, from technology to sustainable energy markets. The organization is actively working to promote regional trade agreements, including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
### The Role of BRICS
The BRICS nations, viewed as a representation of the Global South, play an essential role in this ecosystem. Quah posits that as more countries rally into coalitions like BRICS, there will be an increasing emphasis on mutual benefit. Importantly, this platform allows countries representing 85% of humankind to advocate for a more significant stake in their societal destinies.
Quah’s discourse reflects a genuine belief in the potential of the Global South to redefine global economic structures. He believes these nations have a rightful place in shaping their economic futures and that by working collaboratively, they can not only uplift their economies but also challenge the existing power dynamics dominated by the West.
### Singapore’s Strategic Position
As the epicenter of these discussions, Singapore plays a crucial role due to its geographical, cultural, and economic positioning. Acting as a key node within the ASEAN framework, Singapore is at the forefront of technology advancements and trade negotiations, leveraging its strong financial and logistical infrastructure to enhance trade agreements. The country stands as a model for other ASEAN nations, showcasing how open trade policies and innovation can co-exist for greater economic growth.
### Conclusion
In light of Danny Quah’s forecast, the next decade appears poised for significant transformations in the global economic landscape. If the U.S. continues on its current trajectory of decline, we may, indeed, find the center of economic gravity transitioning to the East much sooner than anticipated. As ASEAN countries forge ahead, pursuing collaborative avenues with their neighbors and partners in the GBA and beyond, they are not just participating in global trade but are actively reshaping it.
Quah’s insights offer not just a prophetic vision but a call to action for nations in the East to leverage their historical narratives and economic aspirations. By fostering partnerships grounded in mutual respect, innovation, and sustainability, the Global South can redefine its role on the world stage, ensuring that it no longer remains a passive participant in the global economy but becomes an active shaper of its future.
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