A recent graphic circulating on social media has ignited significant debate about the American economy’s performance since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022. The data shows a striking divergence: while the S&P 500 has surged more than 70%, job openings have fallen roughly 30%. Coined the “scariest chart in the world,” this juxtaposition raises important questions about the underlying causes of these trends.
At first glance, this data might suggest a narrative that artificial intelligence (AI) has fractured the economy, enriching investors at the expense of workers. However, journalist Derek Thompson argues that the reality is far more intricate. The data is indeed correct—job openings peaked in March 2022 at approximately 11.5 million, while the S&P 500 index climbed from around 3,840 in November 2022 to approximately 6,688 by September 2025. This unprecedented split warrants a deeper examination of the forces at work.
The Monetary Policy Impact
Thompson emphasizes that the primary culprit behind the declining job openings is not AI, but rather monetary policy. Job openings did not peak when ChatGPT debuted; they reached their height in March 2022, coinciding with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes aimed at cooling an overheating economy. Beginning with a quarter-percentage-point increase on March 16, 2022, the Fed executed a series of 11 rate increases by July 2023 in an effort to combat inflation.
Higher interest rates typically slow down investment and spending, suppressing economic activities, including hiring. This contraction of job openings is not an isolated incident; it’s directly linked to the Fed’s tightening measures, underscoring the influence of monetary policy on the labor market.
Trade and Immigration Constraints
Beyond monetary policy, trade regulations and immigration enforcement play crucial roles in limiting job creation. Under former President Donald Trump, tariffs and immigration crackdowns raised operational costs and reduced labor force growth, restrictive measures that continue to affect the market. According to a study by the National Foundation for American Policy, Trump’s policies could reduce the U.S. workforce by 15 million over the next decade, significantly constraining annual economic growth.
Debunking the AI Employment Theory
While AI technologies have generated headlines for transforming industries, the job market’s contraction does not correlate directly with the rise of AI. A sector-by-sector analysis conducted by Preston Mui, a senior economist at Employ America, reveals that the “Information” sector, which includes roles closely associated with AI, witnessed the smallest decline in job openings. In stark contrast, manufacturing, construction, and energy extraction experienced the most significant drops—industries heavily impacted by rising borrowing costs and tariffs.
For instance, the construction sector saw job openings plummet from 303,000 in July 2025 to 188,000 in August 2025, marking the lowest point in nearly ten years. With higher interest rates making capital investments more expensive, these sectors found themselves severely constrained, further contributing to diminished hiring opportunities.
Stock Market Surge and AI Investments
Contrastingly, the stock market has continued its upward trajectory, largely driven by companies involved in AI. According to JPMorgan, AI stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns since November 2022. A mere 30 AI-related companies now comprise around 44% of the S&P 500’s total market value, amassing approximately $5 trillion in wealth gains for U.S. households over the past year.
Tech powerhouses, including Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, have propelled this rally. Some of these companies have reduced their workforce while experiencing stock price increases; for example, Meta announced plans to cut about 3,600 positions even as their stock rose. This concentration of gains raises concerns about a potential bubble, reminiscent of the dot-com era.
Recognizing Early Warning Signs
It is important to acknowledge that certain job sectors are feeling the impact of AI, especially among younger workers. Research from Stanford University indicates a 13% relative decline in employment among workers aged 22 to 25 in jobs most exposed to AI technology. The unemployment rate among college graduates reached 5.8% in March 2024, a trend that has been rising above historical averages—a phenomenon that could reflect various factors, including AI’s influence.
Nevertheless, projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest many AI-exposed occupations will experience faster-than-average growth rates through 2033. For example, software developer employment is expected to rise 17.9% in that timeframe, surpassing the 4% average for all occupations. While AI may automate specific tasks, it simultaneously creates a demand for personnel capable of designing and managing these advanced systems.
A Tale of Two Economies
Thompson argues that the “scariest chart in the world” has its roots in a complex economic landscape defined by two diverging trajectories: a thriving AI economy and a stagnating general economy. Understanding the factors influencing each of these economies is essential for a nuanced analysis of the U.S. economic outlook.
It would be simplistic to lay the blame solely on ChatGPT or AI for the current economic state. The reality is far more multifaceted, driven not only by technological advancements but also by comprehensive monetary tightening, trade restrictions, immigration policies, and concentrated investments in a select number of large-cap tech stocks. The ongoing debate over whether the current situation reflects sustainable economic growth or an unsustainable bubble makes it clear that vigilance is necessary.
In conclusion, as the U.S. navigates these turbulent economic waters, both policymakers and the public must cultivate a deeper understanding of the interconnected factors shaping our current environment. Recognizing the nuances of monetary policy, trade dynamics, and the evolving role of AI will be vital for charting a stable and prosperous path forward.
