The recent developments in the realm of hypersonic missile technology are telling of the United States Air Force’s ongoing efforts to enhance its defense capabilities. Specifically, the delay of the Air Force’s Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM) may provide insight into the revival of another hypersonic weapon—the AGM-183 Air-Launched Rapid-Response Weapon (ARRW).
According to the latest report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO), the HACM program is significantly behind schedule and may incur costs that exceed initial projections. This issue has prompted the Air Force to rethink its approach to hypersonic technology and reconsider its reliance on the ARRW.
The HACM, a critical weapon system intended to bolster the Air Force’s combat capabilities, is designed to be compact enough to be carried by fighter jets like the F-15. It represents a new era of warfare, with the ability to travel at five times the speed of sound. Once propelled to hypersonic speeds by a booster, the missile ignites an air-breathing engine that guides it toward its target.
Currently, the Air Force is collaborating with prime contractor Raytheon and engine supplier Northrop Grumman to establish a new baseline schedule for HACM development. Initially, the aim was to have the missile ready for operation around 2027, but delays may push that timeline further back. In an attempt to mitigate costs, there has been discussion about eliminating two flight tests from the program. As noted by the GAO, Raytheon has already indicated that they expect to exceed their cost baseline, which adds further pressure on the program’s timeline.
According to the GAO report, the Air Force plans to construct a total of 13 HACM missiles during the rapid prototyping phase, integrating not just test assets but also spare missiles and units for initial operational effectiveness. While this effort is geared towards timely fielding by 2027, there is also an emphasis on refining the missile’s design in the lead-up to full-scale production.
Further complicating the landscape of hypersonic missile development is the uncertain future of the AGM-183 ARRW. Initially viewed as a project with a mixed bag of results, the ARRW encountered bumps in the road and was put on hold in the upcoming fiscal 2025 budget. However, the tides have turned as Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin announced plans to expedite the development and procurement of this larger, long-range hypersonic weapon. This new enthusiasm for the ARRW highlights a more strategic approach, ensuring that the Air Force has alternatives in case of delays or failures with the HACM.
Despite its size and operational restrictions—ARRW may only be carried by B-52 bombers—the emphasis on accelerating its development suggests a strong commitment to diversifying the Air Force’s hypersonic capabilities. The overall strategy seems focused on not merely securing a handful of hypersonic missiles but on acquiring a larger inventory at a lower cost, as expressed by Air Force Secretary Troy Meink.
Interestingly, while the HACM is preferred for its smaller size and versatility (potentially being deployable from various types of aircraft), the ARRW can still serve a crucial role in enhancing the U.S. military’s ability to respond rapidly in global power competition. The need for alternative options is underscored by a former senior defense official who pointed out that it is standard to encounter challenges with cutting-edge technology. Having multiple hypersonic missile options can prevent over-reliance on one system, allowing the Air Force to adapt as necessary.
As the HACM program works through its hurdles, it is also essential to note the ongoing collaborative efforts between Raytheon and the Air Force. The program has already received approximately $1.4 billion in funding, transitioning from a middle-tier acquisition initiative to what is expected to become a more traditional defense procurement program.
Further challenges for HACM include a postponed preliminary design review, which has now been pushed back to September 2024, given the need for more time to finalize hardware designs. This delay will inevitably result in a reduction of planned flight tests during the prototyping phase—from seven to five. Nevertheless, the Air Force is confident that they can still achieve the operational readiness required within these limitations.
In sum, the shifting landscape of the U.S. Air Force’s hypersonic missile programs—specifically the delays and challenges that accompany HACM—highlights the complexities involved in developing cutting-edge technologies. The revived interest in the ARRW reflects a prudent strategy to maintain multiple avenues of progress and readiness in a rapidly evolving global threat environment. As the Air Force defines capabilities for a minimum viable product, these developments will shape how the U.S. approaches future defense initiatives, reinforcing the need for innovation against emerging threats.
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