Jasmine Paolini vs. Anastasija Sevastova: Head-to-Head, Preview, Prediction, and Betting Odds for WTA China Open 2025 Round 2
As the excitement of the WTA China Open 2025 unfolds, fans and analysts turn their attention to a highly anticipated second-round clash between Italy’s Jasmine Paolini and Latvia’s Anastasija Sevastova. Paolini, the sixth seed, will be looking to confirm her status as one of the top players on the tour, taking advantage of her strong season. Sevastova, in contrast, aims to continue her return to competitive tennis after her time away from the sport.
Recent Form and Performance
Jasmine Paolini enters the match with positive momentum. Recently, she showcased her skills in the Billie Jean King Cup, dominating Jessica Pegula in straight sets. Currently ranked No. 8 in singles and No. 5 in doubles, Paolini is enjoying an impressive season marked by key victories. Notably, she secured titles in both singles and doubles at the prestigious tournament in Rome, defeating Coco Gauff in a memorable final. Additionally, she achieved a finals appearance in Cincinnati against Iga Swiatek and made impactful semifinal runs in Miami, Stuttgart, and Bad Homburg.
Her performance metrics further illustrate her form: with a total of 66 aces struck across 50 singles matches, she boasts a 62.1% success rate on her first serves and converts 48.3% of break points, showcasing both her aggressive playstyle and tactical acumen.
Anastasija Sevastova, on the other hand, is gradually finding her footing after a significant hiatus for maternity leave and recovering from a torn ACL, which kept her away from competitive play for 14 months. Utilizing a protected ranking, Sevastova has made her return, displaying flashes of her past prowess. Highlights of her comeback include a quarterfinal run in Rabat and a fourth-round appearance at Montreal, where she captured a surprise victory over top player Jessica Pegula before bowing out to Naomi Osaka. Her stats reveal 35 aces from 17 matches, a 62% success rate on first serves, and a 42.4% break-point conversion rate.
Head-to-Head Record
When it comes to past encounters, Paolini has the upper hand, holding a 3-0 advantage over Sevastova. Their rivalry began in 2020 during the Rome Open, where Paolini claimed victory in straight sets. Subsequently, at the Cincinnati qualifiers in 2021, Sevastova retired mid-match, while their most recent clash at Wimbledon saw Paolini stage a comeback victory. Here is a summary of their previous meetings:
- 2025 Wimbledon: Paolini won 2-6, 6-3, 6-2
- 2021 Cincinnati Qualifiers: Paolini won (Sevastova retired)
- 2020 Rome: Paolini won 6-2, 6-3
Player Comparison
When comparing the two players, Paolini’s recent performances and consistency stand out. She is ranked significantly higher and has accumulated a positive career win-loss record of 421-285. In contrast, Sevastova, with a career record of 457-278, is also an accomplished player but has faced challenges due to her recent hiatus.
| Category | Jasmine Paolini | Anastasija Sevastova |
|---|---|---|
| Current Ranking | 8 | 22 |
| Year-to-Date Record | 30-10 | 9-10 |
| Career Titles | 4 | 1 |
Prediction
Considering the present form of both players, Jasmine Paolini is expected to make a strong showing against Anastasija Sevastova. With her solid track record and previous victories over Sevastova, the prediction tilts heavily in favor of Paolini. If she maintains her level of play, it is likely she will advance to the next round.
Prediction: Jasmine Paolini wins in straight sets.
Betting Odds
With the matchup closely analyzed, betting odds reflect strong confidence in Paolini’s abilities. Listed as the -550 favorite by sportsbooks, a bet on Paolini suggests a high level of conviction in her ability to secure a straightforward victory. Meanwhile, Sevastova, positioned at +400, presents potential value for those willing to take a chance on an upset given her experience and competitive nature.
Here are the current betting odds from FanDuel:
- Jasmine Paolini: -550
- Anastasija Sevastova: +400
For specific set outcomes, betting markets suggest:
- Set 1 Winner:
- Paolini: -320
- Sevastova: +225
Conclusion
As Jasmine Paolini prepares to clash with Anastasija Sevastova in the second round of the WTA China Open, anticipation and excitement build around the match. Paolini’s impressive season, combined with her past performance against Sevastova, positions her as the favorite. While Sevastova may still carry the unpredictable edge of a former top player rediscovering her talent, the odds and statistics lean substantially towards an Italian victory. As always in sports, however, surprises can occur, making this encounter one not to be missed.
