Fantasy football preseason hype can often lead to a rollercoaster of emotions for avid players and fans alike. As excitement swells during late summer months, it becomes particularly challenging to remain objective amid the influx of hyperbolic player reports. One player currently at the center of this frenzy is TreVeyon Henderson, who promises to be one of the hottest names in fantasy football for the upcoming season.
Overview of TreVeyon Henderson
Henderson, the talented running back, made waves during his tenure at Ohio State, showcasing exceptional skills that have caught the attention of fantasy football enthusiasts. This hype has surged to the point where he’s being drafted among the top 30 running backs in fantasy leagues, with some forecasts placing him even higher. An analysis by Michael Salfino highlights this trajectory, indicating that after an electrifying kickoff return touchdown during the preseason, the buzz around Henderson has reached a fever pitch. Salfino skeptically notes that the hype may be unwarranted, especially considering Henderson’s injury history during his college career at Ohio State.
The question weighing heavily on the minds of fantasy players is whether Henderson can deliver on this considerable hype. Salfino raises critical points about Henderson’s potential to be a "bell cow" running back in the NFL, given his struggles with injuries in college. Skepticism is healthy in fantasy sports, especially when it comes to young, relatively unproven players.
The Case for Henderson
Despite any skepticism surrounding his health, analyzing Henderson’s skills and potential opportunities reveals something intriguing. Henderson possesses elite breakaway speed and can contribute significantly in the passing game, which makes him an appealing choice for PPR (Points Per Reception) leagues. Comparisons to Jahmyr Gibbs, who finished as RB9 in PPR scoring his rookie year, are drawn due to similar abilities, even though Gibbs was part of a better offensive setup.
Looking at possible projections for touches, ESPN’s Mike Clay is notably optimistic, forecasting Henderson with around 225 carries and 43 receptions. In contrast, the varying projections from different analysts suggest a consensus that he could produce around 200-240 total touches, each critical for a successful fantasy campaign.
Understanding the Statistics
To gauge what Henderson needs to achieve to deliver substantial fantasy returns, we can look back at historical data for running backs who had comparable workloads. Historically, an RB15 finish in PPR formats has averaged around 213.8 points over the past two decades. With a better understanding of how many touches it takes to reach that point, we see that achieving 213.8 PPR points is feasible for Henderson, assuming he stays healthy.
An analysis of past rookie performances reveals that several running backs have met or exceeded the target of 239 touches and still managed to finish within the same scoring range. Notably, many of these players excelled in the receiving game. For Henderson to match expectations in a productive fantasy campaign, a target of about 210 touches, 772.5 rushing yards, and around 10 total touchdowns may be on the table.
Comparative Analysis: Historical Precedents
When examining TreVeyon Henderson’s potential, Giovani Bernard stands out as a compelling comparison. Both players entered the league with highly regarded pass-catching abilities, were drafted within one spot of each other, and met similar physical profiles. Bernard managed to finish as an RB13 during his rookie season with fewer than 200 total touches—largely due to his impact in the passing game.
If Henderson were to mimic or exceed Bernard’s performance, he would need to be integrated into the passing game. Fantasy fortunes can shift dramatically based on a player’s ability to catch passes, especially in offenses where receiving talent is limited.
Considering Josh McDaniels’ offense, which has a history of utilizing running backs effectively in the passing game, Henderson’s chances for high reception numbers look promising. McDaniels has previously relied on running backs like James White, who averaged significant reception numbers during his tenure. Henderson’s ability to potentially fulfill a similar role could make him a hidden gem relative to his current ADP (Average Draft Position).
Durability and Availability Concerns
One significant concern regarding Henderson is his durability. Historical trends support the idea that players who stay on the field yield better results. Henderson’s college career, which saw him miss a few games due to injuries, raises questions among skeptical analysts. However, it’s worth noting that he played an impressive 85% of possible games at Ohio State.
If we speculate on Henderson’s upcoming season, assuming he could maintain a modest health record, averaging about 14 touches per game could lead to favorable outcomes. If he can manage approximately 150 carries and around 60 receptions, that sets up a trajectory for yardage numbers that align well with achieving RB15 status.
Concluding Thoughts
As the draft season approaches, TreVeyon Henderson remains a polarizing figure. While some analysts advocate for caution, arguing that the hype might be unwarranted, others see a young talent ready to seize the moment. With his proven skills and a promising role in a system that could capitalize on his talents, Henderson’s path to a successful fantasy season looks achievable.
Given the statistical benchmarks needed for hitting RB15 value, along with comparable historical performances and potential usage in a favorable offensive scheme, Henderson emerges as a solid candidate. As an investor in fantasy football, the calculated risks you take will ultimately be pivotal, and investing in Henderson could yield favorable rewards.
In conclusion, TreVeyon Henderson could very well live up to the hype—if he can stay healthy, capitalize on opportunities, and deliver in both rushing and receiving roles. Depending on how your draft unfolds, he may offer solid value in the middle rounds as you build your winning fantasy team.
