Fantasy football lineup decisions can often feel like a game of roulette. Each week brings the thrill of making tough calls: start ’em or sit ’em decisions can elevate your team to success or lead to painful regrets. Understanding the nuances of player performance, matchup tendencies, and recent statistics is essential. This article offers crucial insights into three tight ends: Hunter Henry, Jake Ferguson, and Dalton Kincaid, based on recent performances and expert opinions.
Hunter Henry (TE – New England Patriots)
Current Outlook:
In Week 1 of the season, Hunter Henry demonstrated his potential with a solid performance that included a 17.4% target share, 1.83 yards per route run, and 66 receiving yards. Notably, he also achieved a 32.1% air-yard share and contributed a 20% first-read share. These statistics placed him as the TE15 for that week, signaling he may be an impactful streaming option.
Matchup Analysis:
Henry is set to face a defense that significantly struggled against tight ends last season, allowing the 12th-most receiving yards and fantasy points. This favorable matchup increases his likelihood of impactful contributions this week. If you’re in need of a streaming tight end, Henry is a compelling choice who could yield positive results.
Jake Ferguson (TE – Dallas Cowboys)
Current Outlook:
Jake Ferguson showcased promising usage with a 77.1% route share alongside a 17.6% target share. He ended the game with five receptions but only totaled 23 yards. While the raw numbers may not seem impressive, the route participation is more indicative of potential upside moving forward.
Matchup Analysis:
Ferguson will face the Giants, who have a defensive scheme inclined to use single high coverage—a formation that has previously not favored him. Last season, against such coverage, he averaged only 1.04 yards per route run with a low first-read share of 16.8%. Moreover, the Giants’ defense ranked among the best when defending tight ends, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points. Given this context, Ferguson may need to score a touchdown to justify a start, making him a risky play.
Dalton Kincaid (TE – Buffalo Bills)
Current Outlook:
Kincaid kicked off the season by finishing as the TE4, primarily due to a touchdown that masked some concerning usage metrics. Despite his position in the rankings, his route share was only 55.8%, with a mere 8.7% target share and 11.5% first-read share. He managed 48 receiving yards, achieving an acceptable 1.66 yards per route run; however, the overall low engagement in the passing game raises red flags.
Matchup Analysis:
Kincaid is up against a Jets defense that historically limits tight ends effectively, allowing the sixth-lowest yards per reception and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game last season. This challenging matchup, combined with his lack of consistent target volume, makes him a candidate to sit for the time being if better options are available.
Summary
When considering whether to start or sit these players, here’s a concise breakdown:
Hunter Henry: Start. He has demonstrated solid usage and benefits from a favorable matchup against a defensive unit that struggled against tight ends last season.
Jake Ferguson: Sit. While he’s shown good route participation, the matchup against the Giants, who effectively contain tight ends, coupled with his need for a touchdown, makes him a risky start.
- Dalton Kincaid: Sit. Despite scoring last week, his alarming target share and a daunting matchup against the Jets warrant caution.
Conclusion
As the fantasy football season progresses, these start/sit decisions will become pivotal in your quest for victory. Hunter Henry stands out as a confident streaming option, while Jake Ferguson and Dalton Kincaid present significant risks given their current usage metrics and matchup difficulties. Always keep an eye on player updates, weather conditions, and any last-minute injury news that could affect your lineup. Utilize resources like the "Who Should I Start?" tool or custom advice from your league’s settings to make informed choices each week. Strategic lineup management will be essential to create a path toward fantasy football success.
