Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Kazakhstan for the second China–Central Asia Summit marks a pivotal moment in regional diplomacy. As he arrives in the Kazakh capital, Astana, on June 16, 2024, the focus centers on the growing economic and strategic ties between China and the five Central Asian nations: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. This summit is particularly significant as it is the first of its kind hosted in Central Asia with an external leader, highlighting China’s deepening engagement in the region amid shifting global dynamics.
### What’s on Xi’s Agenda in Astana?
Welcomed by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and senior officials, Xi is set to partake in critical bilateral discussions before the main summit. Key items on his agenda include addressing the progress made under the China-Central Asia framework and exploring avenues for mutually beneficial cooperation in light of global hotspots. Central Asian leaders view their partnership with China as a multi-layered collaboration founded on shared strategic interests that enhance regional stability and facilitate economic modernization.
Recent statements from China’s Foreign Ministry emphasize the unanimous decision among Central Asian nations to solidify this partnership, aligning with their aspirations for stability and high-quality development. Xi’s participation at the summit reinforces China’s commitment to strengthening its influence in this vital region.
### The ‘C5+1’ Framework: A New Competitive Landscape
Experts are drawing parallels between the ongoing China-Central Asia Summit and the ‘C5+1’ framework initiated by the United States in 2015, which involved Central Asian leaders meeting at the level of foreign ministers. As geopolitical tensions rise, particularly between China and the United States, the competition for influence in Central Asia becomes increasingly pronounced.
In recent months, the U.S. has attempted to re-engage with Central Asia, highlighted by President Biden’s hosting of the region’s leaders during the UN General Assembly. However, tariff policies and geopolitical strategies from Washington may complicate these relations, allowing China to position itself as a more favorable partner — a narrative that is gaining traction among Central Asian states.
### Central Asia’s Strategic Importance to China
The significance of Central Asia extends beyond mere economic transactions; the region is richly endowed with uranium, oil, and rare earth metals, making it a crucial corridor for China’s trade with Europe. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a cornerstone of Xi’s vision for economic connectivity, sees Central Asia as a strategic bridge to Europe. Discussions around substantial infrastructure projects, like the $8 billion railway linking China’s Xinjiang region to Uzbekistan, are indicative of China’s long-term plans for greater integration in the region.
This emphasis on connectivity also addresses the reliance of Central Asian countries on Russian transport systems, as China seeks to establish direct routes to facilitate trade. As Xi meets with the five Central Asian leaders, expect significant agreements that aim to streamline customs procedures, reduce tariffs, and enhance trade volumes.
### China’s Economic Footprint in Central Asia
Today, China stands as the top trading partner for all five Central Asian republics. This dependence on Chinese markets is exemplified by Kazakhstan’s imports of $18.7 billion from China, comprising 30% of its total imports. Similarly, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan rely heavily on Chinese goods to meet their import needs.
China’s commitment to investing in the region is substantial, spotlighting its role as a vital partner in development. Investments estimated at $26 billion in Kazakhstan alone underscore the importance of these economic ties, which Central Asian states increasingly view as essential for their own socioeconomic growth.
### The Complicated Russia-China Dynamic
As China deepens its foothold in Central Asia, a key question arises: Is China replacing Russia as the dominant power in the region? Historically, these five nations were closely aligned with Moscow, and millions continue to live and work in Russia, relying on its energy resources. In recent years, however, China has overtaken Russia as the primary trading partner of these states, particularly in light of the ongoing conflicts involving Russia that have reshaped alliances and dependencies.
Despite this shift, it’s vital to recognize that Russia still plays a significant role in the security dynamics of the region, especially through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), which assures member states of mutual defense. The complexities of this geopolitical landscape suggest that while China may be advancing economically, Russia still retains considerable influence and historical ties that complicate the narrative of a straightforward transition of power.
### Conclusion
The second China-Central Asia Summit not only marks an important diplomatic milestone but embodies the intricate web of relationships among China, Central Asia, and Russia. As Xi Jinping charts a course toward deeper ties with these nations, both opportunities and challenges lie ahead. The outcomes of this summit will likely redefine economic partnerships, security alliances, and the geopolitical landscape of Central Asia in the years to come, as regional leaders navigate their paths amid the competing interests of major world powers.
As the world watches, the dynamics in Central Asia will continue to evolve, reflecting broader trends and shifts in global power alignments.
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