Ajla Tomljanović vs. Coco Gauff Prediction, Odds for US Open First Round

As the 2024 U.S. Open gets underway, one of the most anticipated matchups features Coco Gauff, the reigning champion, taking on Australia’s Ajla Tomljanović in the first round. This clash is electrifying not only because it showcases two contrasting careers but also due to the layers of narrative surrounding both players.

### Current Form and Background

Coco Gauff has been a household name since her stunning victory at the 2023 U.S. Open, where she captured her first Grand Slam title. This season, Gauff has demonstrated her prowess by winning the French Open but faced disappointment at Wimbledon, faltering in the first round. Her fluctuating form raises the question: Which Coco Gauff will show up in Queens, New York? Will it be the player who soared at Roland Garros or the one who struggled on the grass courts?

Contrastingly, Ajla Tomljanović’s trajectory has been one of ups and downs. Once a formidable contender with a quarterfinal finish at the U.S. Open in 2022, she currently finds herself ranked No. 1,211 in the world. This dramatic drop reflects challenges in her game, but it’s important to note that she reached the second round at the U.S. Open in the previous two years, showcasing her potential to compete on this stage.

### Head-to-Head and Match Odds

Gauff and Tomljanović have met just once in their careers, which resulted in a straight-sets victory (6-3, 6-0) for Gauff at the Paris Olympic Games. Given this history and the current odds—Gauff listed as a massive -3000 favorite (implying a 96.77% victory probability)—the expectations are notably skewed in favor of Gauff.

In contrast, Tomljanović enters this match as a considerable underdog, but savvy bettors may find value in her ability to cover the +6.5 game spread at +114. Recent performances show that she has the skills to fluster more highly-ranked players; she narrowly lost to No. 16 Clara Tauson at the Cincinnati Open, taking the match to three sets, and pushed No. 2 Ekaterina Alexandrova in her latest outing at the Abierto GNP Seguros.

### Why This Match Might Be Closer Than Expected

Though Gauff’s recent form has earned her a prominent spotlight, Tomljanović’s resilience should not be underestimated. With her background of reaching the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open and a recent track record of competitive matches against higher-ranked opponents, she may have a few tricks up her sleeve.

Consider also the psychological factors at play. Gauff is transitioning from the pressure of defending her title to facing a solid but lower-ranked opponent. This shift in expectations could create vulnerabilities, especially if Tomljanović manages to capitalize on any early signs of inconsistency from Gauff.

### Betting Insights

Given the strong odds favoring Gauff, the safer betting strategy could involve taking Tomljanović to cover the game spread. While her chances of winning outright appear slim, her capacity to make the match competitive could provide value for those looking to wager on this contest.

For bettors looking at Gauff, the prohibitive moneyline might not offer enough return to risk a significant wager. Instead, considering alternative lines or propositions might yield better outcomes.

### Final Thoughts

As the U.S. Open unfolds, expectations surrounding Coco Gauff will undoubtedly loom large. Simultaneously, Ajla Tomljanović has the chance to redefine her recent struggles against one of the game’s stars. For fans and bettors alike, this first-round matchup offers intrigue, potential upset scenarios, and ample opportunities as the women’s draw progresses.

While Gauff appears to be the favorite based on current performance status, there’s always room for surprises in the WTA. Whether she can recapture her championship form, or whether Tomljanović can rise to the occasion, remains to be seen. The stakes are high, the players are hungry, and as always with tennis, anything can happen on the day.

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