Airbus revises up 20-year jet demand forecast despite trade tensions

Airbus has recently updated its 20-year demand forecast for commercial jets, projecting robust growth despite ongoing trade tensions that have influenced the global economy. This optimistic outlook was shared during a briefing to investors and suppliers, highlighting the resilience of the air transport industry amidst geopolitical challenges.

The European aerospace giant announced it expects a total of 43,420 commercial jets to be delivered from 2025 to 2044, representing a 2% increase from the previous year’s forecast. Additionally, this figure encompasses 42,450 passenger aircraft—also a 2% rise—along with 970 factory-built freighters, which reflects a 3% increase in demand.

Airbus’s confidence is underscored by its expectation that air traffic will grow at an average annual rate of 3.6% over the next two decades. This is significant, especially in light of a slightly revised projection for global GDP growth, which now stands at 2.5%. Despite these changes, the company remains hopeful about the air transport sector’s potential.

Antonio Da Costa, Airbus’s Vice President for Market Analysis and Forecast, noted the current geopolitical landscape, stating, "There is certainly some turbulence thanks to the recent geopolitical and trade situation. However, it is still very early days… nevertheless, the early signals are giving us some level of hope." This sentiment reflects a cautious optimism as the industry navigates complexities such as U.S. tariffs and their global implications.

The aerospace sector has faced significant headwinds recently, particularly as U.S. tariffs, initiated during the Trump administration, have created friction between the U.S. and Europe. These tariffs have prompted retaliatory measures from the European Union, as well as volatility between the U.S. and China. However, there seems to be a willingness to restore trade harmony. On Tuesday, U.S. and Chinese officials discussed strategies to reestablish a trade truce and reverse adverse restrictions.

While Airbus anticipates that current tariffs of 10% on many imports will persist for some time, it contrasts this with the potential disruptions that could arise from escalated punitive tariffs. According to Da Costa, the air transport sector has historically demonstrated resilience, particularly when linked to a growing middle class with increased disposable income. This market dynamic often shields the industry from economic downturns.

Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury has joined a growing chorus of industry leaders advocating for a return to tariff-free trading in aerospace. The call for improved trade policies underscores concerns regarding the negative impact of escalating tariff disputes on the sector’s recovery and long-term growth.

Notably, Airbus has raised its demand forecast specifically for single-aisle planes, like the A320neo and the 737 MAX, which collectively account for around 80% of all commercial jet deliveries. The expectation over the next two decades is for 34,250 of these aircraft to be produced, with 56% identified as additional capacity. This emphasizes the increasing need for efficient and flexible planes, catering to a burgeoning demand for air travel in various markets.

Furthermore, the forecast for wide-body passenger jet deliveries has been adjusted upward by 3% to anticipate 8,200 planes. This segment has seen a notable rise in demand, particularly influenced by Gulf carriers, who have consistently operated long-haul routes and drive demand for larger aircraft.

In conclusion, Airbus’s updated forecast demonstrates a resilient stance in the face of trade tensions and economic fluctuations. The projected growth in both passenger and freighter aircraft delivery highlights the industry’s capacity to adapt and thrive, even amid challenges. With air traffic projected to increase steadily, investors and stakeholders in the aerospace sector can look toward a promising future, buoyed by a continually expanding demand for air travel. As we move through uncertain times, the optimism expressed by leaders in the industry reinforces the notion that the global demand for aviation will persist, paving the way for continued innovation and growth in the years to come.

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