AFC West betting preview – Odds and picks for the division

The AFC West has established itself as one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL, particularly with the Kansas City Chiefs dominating for the last decade. This article provides an overview of the current betting landscape for the AFC West as of August 2025, highlighting key insights, player performances, and projected win totals.

Kansas City Chiefs: The Continued Dominance

With ten consecutive seasons of ten or more wins and nine straight AFC West titles, the Kansas City Chiefs have set a high bar for success. Their projected win total stands at 11.5, tied for the highest in the league with the Ravens, Bills, and Eagles.

Despite this lofty expectation, concerns linger about whether the Chiefs can maintain their dominance. Patrick Mahomes is coming off a year with career-low averages in sacks and passing yards per game. Nonetheless, Mahomes is still seen as a top MVP candidate, sharing the third-shortest odds at +650.

Los Angeles Chargers: Ready to Challenge

The Chargers are entering the season with strong expectations after making the playoffs last year. They also have a projected win total of 9.5. Quarterback Justin Herbert had a breakout season, throwing for nearly 3,900 yards, 23 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. With the return of wide receiver Keenan Allen and new offensive weapons like rookie WR Tre Harris and veteran TE Tyler Conklin, the Chargers have upgraded their offense.

Jim Harbaugh’s influence as head coach also adds to their playoff aspirations. The odds for the Chargers to win the division currently sit at -130, making them a serious contender in the AFC West.

Denver Broncos: The Comeback Kid?

The Denver Broncos are a team on the rise, especially after an impressive 10-win season last year. They also have a projected win total of 9.5. New coach Sean Payton has reinvigorated the team, focusing on critical areas in both offense and defense. The addition of rookie running back RJ Harvey and tight end Evan Engram is expected to provide a major boost.

Analysts are particularly optimistic about Bo Nix in his second year under Payton, especially considering the Broncos’ history of struggles in close games. If they can improve in such scenarios, they may not just reach the 10-win mark again but potentially challenge the Chiefs for the division title.

Las Vegas Raiders: Long Shots with Potential Upside

Although the odds aren’t in their favor—currently +340 to make the playoffs—the Raiders should not be overlooked. They have the makings of an exciting offense with the addition of Geno Smith at quarterback and standout talents like offensive rookie of the year favorite Ashton Jeanty and tight end Brock Bowers.

With a projected win total of 6.5, the Raiders could surprise many bettors this season. Eric Moody has highlighted the potential for the Raiders to break their long-standing division title drought that has persisted since 2002.

Betting Strategies and Key Picks

Best Bets:

Denver Broncos Over 9.5 Wins (+100):
Given their previous season’s record and the positive changes in coaching and roster, betting on the Broncos to exceed their win total appears promising.

Las Vegas Raiders Over 6.5 Wins (-140):
With the Raiders improving their offense and overall stability brought by Smith under center, some analysts suggest this could be a worthwhile bet.

Los Angeles Chargers Over 9.5 Wins (+105):
The Chargers have showcased their offensive prowess and efficiency, making a bet on their ability to exceed their win total appealing.

Current Division Odds Summary

• Kansas City Chiefs: -120 to win the division; Projected win total: 11.5
• Los Angeles Chargers: -130 to return to playoffs; Projected win total: 9.5
• Denver Broncos: Projected win total: 9.5; Best bet for potential upside.
• Las Vegas Raiders: +340 to make playoffs; Projected win total: 6.5

Conclusion

The AFC West promises yet another thrilling season filled with high-stakes matchups and competitive teams. While the Chiefs remain the favorites, both the Chargers and Broncos are primed to pose a challenge for the division title. The Raiders, while seen as underdogs, may also hold intriguing betting opportunities.

Understanding the intricacies of player performance, coaching changes, and game strategies will be essential for bettors looking to navigate the betting landscape successfully. As the NFL season progresses, the AFC West’s dynamics will undoubtedly continue to evolve, making it a division to keep a close eye on.

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