Across all of sports, few things are more exhilarating than the long ball, especially when it comes to Major League Baseball. Hitting a home run not only ignites stadiums but also creates prime opportunities for profit at sportsbooks. If you’re looking to capitalize on the Home Run prop bets today, particularly for Friday, September 19, 2025, there’s plenty of action to consider. This article will cover three standout home run prop bets, utilizing current MLB projections and various statistical insights.
Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+440)
First on our list is Jackson Merrill, a rising star positioned to take advantage of a favorable matchup against right-handed pitcher Davis Martin of the Chicago White Sox.
Pitcher Analysis: Davis Martin has a 4.75 SIERA alongside a 17.1% strikeout rate over 132.1 innings this season. While he can be effective, his susceptibility to home runs is concerning. Martin has allowed 1.65 home runs per nine innings, and that rate climbs to 1.62 when pitching at home. Left-handed batters have particularly thrived against him, showcasing a real edge for Merrill.
Hitter Analysis: Merrill’s performance has been somewhat below expectations based on his stellar 2024 season, but luck plays a role in this sport. His expected wOBA stands at .364, significantly higher than his current .325. When facing righties, his wOBA jumps to .352 paired with an impressive 40.5% fly-ball rate. If he can connect early, not only will he face Martin, but later in the game, he’ll also have a chance against a Chicago White Sox bullpen that is struggling with a 4.52 xFIP.
Jordan Beck to Hit a Home Run (+440)
Next, we focus on Jordan Beck of the Colorado Rockies, who is well-positioned at home in Coors Field against a left-handed pitcher, Mitch Farris.
Pitcher Analysis: Farris, a rookie for the Los Angeles Angels, has only thrown 15 innings in the majors this year. In that short span, he’s surrendered a staggering 1.80 home runs per nine innings and a concerning 50.0% fly-ball rate. This combination makes him a prime target for right-handed batters who can exploit his weaknesses.
Hitter Analysis: Beck thrives in advantageous splits, registering a .363 wOBA against southpaws. With a hard-hit rate of 40.5% and a fly-ball rate of 39.3%, he could be poised for a big night under the bright lights of Coors Field. Moreover, Farris’s inexperience combined with a struggling Angels bullpen, which ranks poorly in xFIP at 4.49 and allows the second-most home runs per nine innings (1.44) in 2025, makes Beck an appealing choice for home run betting.
Heliot Ramos to Hit a Home Run (+350)
To round out our selections, we turn our attention to Heliot Ramos from the San Francisco Giants, who faces a seasoned but possibly vulnerable Clayton Kershaw.
Pitcher Analysis: Kershaw, who has announced his retirement at the end of the season, carries a 3.53 ERA but the underlying metrics tell another story. His SIERA sits at 4.54, and his strikeout rate is just 17.0%. More troubling for Kershaw is his home run-per-nine rate of 1.13, significantly inflated compared to his road performance of 0.17. In his last three outings, he has given up 10 earned runs, indicating potential vulnerability.
Hitter Analysis: While Ramos has a modest home run total this season (17), he has shown more power against left-handed pitchers with a hearty fly-ball rate of 46.9%. Given the emotional context surrounding Kershaw’s final season, coupled with the Giants being keen to spoil his farewell, Ramos could take full advantage of this matchup.
Conclusion: How to Approach Home Run Betting
When betting on home runs, it’s essential to consider various factors such as the pitcher’s statistics, the hitter’s tendencies, and even the emotional context of the matchup. Home runs aren’t solely dependent on raw talent; they also hinge on timing, situational awareness, and sometimes a bit of luck.
For today’s slate on September 19, 2025, Jackson Merrill (+440), Jordan Beck (+440), and Heliot Ramos (+350) stand out as the three best home run prop bets. Each player boasts favorable matchups that offer significant profit potential, whether you’re a casual bettor or a seasoned wagering veteran.
Be sure to keep an eye on the odds as they can change throughout the day. Good luck, and let’s hope for some high-flying excitement!
As always, exercise responsible gambling practices and consider all available information before placing your bets. Each game carries its own uncertainties, and outcomes may vary despite statistical projections.
