As we approach the end of the regular MLB season, the race for individual awards is intensifying. The MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year races are heating up alongside the playoff standings. With the latest insights and performances, let’s dissect the leading contenders for each category as of September 2025 and explore what factors could influence the final outcomes.
Most Valuable Player (MVP)
American League
Leading Contenders:
- Aaron Judge (Yankees) – 153 AXE
- Cal Raleigh (Mariners) – 144 AXE
Judge is maintaining a strong offensive season, leading in several metrics, including OPS+ and wRC+. While Raleigh has made history with his home run count as a catcher, Judge’s overall offensive consistency gives him the edge. However, Raleigh’s historical significance as a backstop and current RBI leader keeps the race intriguing.
What Could Change:
If Raleigh continues to struggle at the plate and the Mariners miss the playoffs, Judge’s exceptional numbers could sway voters back to him. Despite the odds favoring Judge, history and narrative play pivotal roles in award voting.
Prediction: Raleigh sets records but narrowly edges out Judge, thanks to his historic context.
National League
Leading Contenders:
- Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) – 152 AXE
- Juan Soto (Mets) – 140 AXE
Ohtani is having an MVP-worthy season, excelling both as a hitter and pitcher. His combination of power, on-base presence, and pitching prowess puts him miles ahead of the competition. Soto’s strong offensive metrics keep him in the conversation, but Ohtani’s two-way impact makes him the favorite.
What Could Change:
Barring an unforeseen drop in performance, it’s difficult to see Ohtani being overtaken for the award.
Prediction: Ohtani wins comfortably, solidifying his legacy.
Cy Young
American League
Leading Contenders:
- Tarik Skubal (Tigers) – 146 AXE
- Garrett Crochet (Red Sox) – 139 AXE
Skubal has shown impressive consistency this season with a lower ERA and superior K-to-BB ratio compared to Crochet. Despite Crochet’s recent momentum, Skubal’s overall performance metrics suggest he stands firm as the frontrunner.
What Could Change:
If Skubal falters down the stretch, Crochet could capitalize on any slip-up. Given how close the race is, Skubal’s final starts will be crucial.
Prediction: Skubal holds on to win the Cy Young.
National League
Leading Contenders:
- Paul Skenes (Pirates) – 142 AXE
- Cristopher Sanchez (Phillies) – 142 AXE
This race is fascinating due to the tie in AXE rating. Skenes boasts exceptional figures in ERA and innings pitched. Despite Sanchez’s strong performance, Skenes has been slightly more consistent throughout the year.
What Could Change:
Both pitchers would need to struggle for others, like Freddy Peralta, to sneak in. The final weeks will be pivotal for both.
Prediction: Skenes emerges victorious due to superior performance metrics and volume.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Leading Contenders:
- Nick Kurtz (Athletics) – 127 AXE
- Roman Anthony (Red Sox) – 117 AXE
Kurtz is on track for a historic season among rookies, boasting an impressive OPS and a remarkable four-home run game. His potential seems nearly insurmountable now, especially with Anthony sidelined due to injury.
What Could Change:
Injuries aside, it’s difficult to foresee a scenario where anyone surpasses Kurtz for the award.
Prediction: Kurtz wins unanimously.
National League
Leading Contenders:
- Isaac Collins (Brewers) – 115 AXE
- Drake Baldwin (Braves) – 113 AXE
This race remains competitive with uncertainty around the frontrunners. Collins leads a charging Brewers team while Baldwin has shown flashes of brilliance.
What Could Change:
If Baldwin can maintain momentum while Collins encounters struggles, the narrative could shift.
Prediction: Collins wins by a narrow margin.
Manager of the Year
American League
Leading Contenders:
- A.J. Hinch (Tigers) – 108.3 EARL
- John Schneider (Blue Jays) – 107.8 EARL
Hinch and Schneider are neck-and-neck, but Hinch has the edge based on the Tigers’ performance relative to expectations. Who clinches the top seed could very well determine this award.
What Could Change:
If the Blue Jays make a late playoff push, Schneider’s case could strengthen.
Prediction: Hinch claims the award for leading the Tigers to new heights.
National League
Leading Contenders:
- Pat Murphy (Brewers) – 113.7 EARL
- Clayton McCullough (Marlins) – 106.9 EARL
Murphy has capitalized on the Brewers’ early success while navigating various player performances. His ability to maximize contributions from young talent has put him in a strong position to repeat.
What Could Change:
A collapse by the Brewers could open the door for McCullough but seems unlikely.
Prediction: Murphy secures his second consecutive award.
Conclusion
As the season draws to a close, predictions are becoming clearer but voter sentiment and narrative still hold significant weight in these races. Whether it’s the spectacular performance of Judge, the historic feats by Raleigh, or Ohtani’s unparalleled two-way play, the awards season is shaping up to be one for the ages in Major League Baseball. Keep watching, as the final weeks will be filled with pivotal moments that may well sway the outcomes of these prestigious honors.
